The CDC has just reported the measles cases for 2014 to date: 402 (that is four hundred and two) and 65 cases more than last week. The entire year 2010 only saw 63 cases and in fact, the median number between 2000 and 2010 was 60 per year. How can that be?! Very simple: Every year, measles are imported into the US from abroad. If they are imported into communities with low vaccination coverage, they will spread - usually not very far. Just that this time, measles got imported into a much larger pocket of low vaccination coverage - the Ohio population of Amish. And although these are now vaccinating, there are enough non-immune people around to sustain the outbreak, sustain it big time (I am sure we'll hear a luke warm "that's not an outbreak" from Bob Sears at some point though).
image credit nbcnews
In any case - with 402 cases, the time has come to call it - the last really big outbreak of measles in the US was in 1989 to 1991. Around 55000 people got sick, at least 123 died acutely for a mortality rate of 1 reported death in 451 reported cases. We know that there have been at least 11 SSPE cases due to that outbreak, so the death rate is more like 1 reported death in 414 reported cases. We will reach at least one of these numbers next week. That doesn't mean that someone is going to die next week, statistics don't quite work that way. However, it is, at this point, more likely than not that we'll see a death before the end this year.
I am going to call something else: one someone dies, the anti-vax are going to find something "defective" about the victim, and if it isn't something obvious (like the measles victim in Wales, who reportedly was an underweight adult with a past alcohol problem, so "clearly" not like the vaccine refusers' little snowflakes), they are going to make something up (wrong diet, blabla). No number of deaths will be "enough" for them - sad!
Now is as good a time as ever to check your children's and your own immunization records - 2xMMR is extremely effective in preventing measles and saving lives! Just do it.
image credit nbcnewsIn any case - with 402 cases, the time has come to call it - the last really big outbreak of measles in the US was in 1989 to 1991. Around 55000 people got sick, at least 123 died acutely for a mortality rate of 1 reported death in 451 reported cases. We know that there have been at least 11 SSPE cases due to that outbreak, so the death rate is more like 1 reported death in 414 reported cases. We will reach at least one of these numbers next week. That doesn't mean that someone is going to die next week, statistics don't quite work that way. However, it is, at this point, more likely than not that we'll see a death before the end this year.
I am going to call something else: one someone dies, the anti-vax are going to find something "defective" about the victim, and if it isn't something obvious (like the measles victim in Wales, who reportedly was an underweight adult with a past alcohol problem, so "clearly" not like the vaccine refusers' little snowflakes), they are going to make something up (wrong diet, blabla). No number of deaths will be "enough" for them - sad!
Now is as good a time as ever to check your children's and your own immunization records - 2xMMR is extremely effective in preventing measles and saving lives! Just do it.
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